Cricket World Cup

A speculation, albeit incorrect, does not go to waste. Here, the end result is not the point. Its the stimulation of discussion and thoughts that matters.
So. Here are mine.
History shows that the cup has been won by (a) An overwhelmingly strong team OR (b) a well-settled team having strong leadership and which is on the rise and in good form.
'75, '79 - West Indies. Its no understatement that they were far ahead of the rest of the pack.
'83 - India. This was a team on the rise and in high spirits, after giving WestIndies a run for their money just before the tournament started.
'87 - Australia. Again, a team in good form and a positive mood leading to the cup.
'92 - Pakistan had just beaten WestIndies at home. Which was no mean achievement even in 1991
'96 - Sri Lanka. Strong leadership of Arjuna Ranatunga and a team on a high after beating Australia in ODIs.
'00, '03, '07 - Australia were strong favourites and dominated world cricket during this period.

So what does that mean for this tournament? For one, there aren't any overwhelming favourites. Lets look at the teams.
Pakistan look too unsettled for my liking, in spite of wining against NZ on their home turf.
England lost by a long way to Australia in the ODIs and the joy of winning the ashes has worn off. They're plagued by injuries too.
NZ got thrashed 5-0 in India. Admittedly by one of the favourites, but its hard to envisage them picking up the pieces from here.
West Indies is a team in flux. Not to mention they have loads of players who don't have much experience of playing in the subcontinent. Unlikely.
Bangladesh is an interesting one. They've beaten Zimbabwe and NZ at home. They're playing in familiar conditions. But do they have the firepower to go all the way? I don't think so. Not yet. In the series against NZ, their top batsmen was Shakib Al-Hasan, averaging 71. The next best was 34. Less than half! They are reliant on a few good players and thats not good enough to win the world cup.
Zimbabwe have lost miserably in the recent past to South Africa and then Bangladesh.

So, ignoring the minnows, we're left with Australia, India, Sri Lanka, South Africa in no particular order.
Thats the likely semis lineup for me. From here, it gets hard. It calls for a closer look. Maybe later.